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WILL THE 2020 GOLD RALLY LAST ?

Gold prices have skyrocketed this year, due to the panic generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The metal is trading at $2050 an ounce now, up 33 per cent year-to-date, outpacing all other asset classes. Investors and hedge fund managers are queueing up to buy gold in the futures and ETF markets, and this is pushing price of the precious metal higher and higher.

In countries such as the US, the UK and the EU region, a second round of stimulus is expected to combat the continued impact of Covid-19 on these economies.

It must be noted that an easy monetary policy makes paper currencies weak and forces investors to seek safety in gold. According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold-backed ETFs globally have seen record inflows so far this year, adding $47.8 billion as of July 27. Interestingly, in the June 2020 quarter, demand for gold from investors (including those buying coins and bars) was 539.6 tonnes, which exceeded demand from consumers of gold jewellery, at 325.8 tonnes. The last time such a trend was seen was in June quarter of 2016 but, at that time, prices were far cheaper — at $1,182/ounce.

Why hedge funds cut long positions

Besides ETFs, demand for gold in the futures market is also strong now, thanks to hedge funds being bullish on the metal. Since mid-June, net long positions of hedge funds in gold futures has only been increasing. In March, and until middle of June, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on positions of hedge funds in gold futures implied that the gold price rally would lose the fizz as net long positions of the money managers were dropping. But now, looking back, it appears that it was the supply-side challenges in movement of gold from vaults and mines that made hedge funds reduce their long positions.

There are some interesting facts from the recent WGC report which force the conclusion that the yellow metal rally is not over. First, while in the previous rally between 2008 and 2011, the price doubled — from $900/ounce to $1,970/ounce — this time around, the increase in price has been just 30 per cent. Further, in the current year, the yellow metals’ three-month and one-year rolling returns have moved by only two standard deviations or less, which is significantly below levels seen in previous periods (in 2006 and 2008), when prices increased by three-standard deviations or more. One must also note that adjusted for inflation, the current gold prices are still lower than the 2011 high.

The outlook

Gold prices may continue to remain strong for more time.

IMF also holds a negative outlook on growth for 2020 and 2021. Weaker economies and weaker paper currencies will support gold prices. It makes sense for investors to add this metal to their portfolio, even at current prices. You can invest 10-15 per cent of your portfolio in gold any time for diversification purposes. Start moving small portions of your portfolio into the metal through gold ETFs or gold futures in regular intervals over the next six months. You can also consider investing through sovereign gold bonds.

Series V of the sovereign gold bond issue for 2020-21 is open now (till August 7); price is ₹5,334/gram. On your investment in the bond, the government will also pay an annual interest rate of 2.5 per cent. The interest earned is taxable; however, capital gains, if any at maturity will be tax-exempt.

2020 gold rally
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August 6, 2020
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Which is better investment GOLD or DIAMOND ?

***GOLD***

Properties of gold as a metal include that it does not rust or corrode, is malleable, and has superior ability to conduct both heat and electricity. Though it has some industrial applications, is largely used as a base for currency and jewellery.

***GOLD RESERVE***
Central banks all over the world also use gold reserves as a form of investment. However, as an investment class, demand for gold is determined by sentiment more than supply and demand principles. Since the supply of new gold mined is much lesser than the amount of gold held by individual hoarders, the price of gold falls when hoarders feel like selling.

***PHYSICAL YELLOW METAL***
There are more advantages to gold when buying it physically. It has no counterpart risk, meaning the value of it will never be zero. It is private and confidential in terms of no one knowing that you own it.

CASH FOR GOLD
Gold is also liquid and portable, making it easy to authorized resale places. Investments in gold can be liquidated much faster than other physical assets, It is also easier to store and comes with low maintenance and carrying costs.

***PROTECTION***
Gold can also protect an investor’s portfolio during a time of crisis. Looking at the graph below, The value of gold doesn’t correlate with the market. When stock market declines, gold has rise more than actually fall in value.

**SAFE HAVEN**
Gold is a natural safe haven when a crisis occurs and fear is rising. Gold ensures that if more people look to invest in times like those, then the prices substantially increase. Gold offers massive profit given the “precarious nature of our economic, financial, and monetary systems”

**DIAMOND**

When you buy diamond jewellery, you don’t get diamonds for its entire value. For instance, on purchasing a diamond worth Rs 50,000, about 17 percent goes towards gold charges (as part of jewellery), another 8 per cent towards making charges and another 3 percent as GST. So, effectively, only 72% of the purchase value is allocated towards buying diamonds.

Making charges are a form of mark-ups and over the years it has supposedly increased to help support diamond rates in the market. So, when you sell diamond jewellery, you will get value only for diamond and gold (mostly at a discount to current rates), while foregoing making charges and government taxes. This will further dent diamond’s price performance.

**Poor Secondary Market**

Unlike gold or silver, which has a very liquid secondary market, it is not easy to sell diamonds. Except for some large retailers, there are no transparent mechanisms of pricing or a system of buy-backs. A precious metal like gold is fungible and liquid. It could be stored and sold anytime in the market. However, that couldn’t be said about diamonds.

**Bigger is Better**

A one carat solitaire (single diamond piece) ring is more expensive than a 25-stone cluster ring. That’s because larger stones are rarer than smaller stones of the same quality. Moreover, if you are in the habit of buying many diamond rings – probably you stand to lose. Diamond prices usually rise in proportion to their size. Some experts in fact advise buying diamonds upwards of a carat. However, that might not suit everyone’s pocket.

**In a Nutshell**

Diamonds might be a girl’s best friends. However, its poor price performance and an illiquid secondary market make it a poor investment candidate. So, buy diamonds only for once-in-a-lifetime gifting and nothing more. Adopt equities or other financial asset classes for meeting your investment goals.

In short, investing in diamond would have eroded your wealth in the past decade. Gold in comparison did relatively better – it was up 84% during the same period, while equities (Sensex) gave a return of 141 percent. Equities gave an inflation-beating CAGR of 9-10% for its investors.

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July 2, 2020
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LOCKDOWN easing plans boost risk appetite

Gold fell nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday as LockDown easing plans boost risk appetite by some countries easing coronavirus-induced restrictions, although recession fears and hopes for more stimulus kept the bullion near the $1,700 level.

Spot gold eased 0.7 per cent to $1,702.00 per ounce by 0701 GMT, after falling as much as 1.4 per cent during the session. US gold futures fell 0.4 per cent to $1,716.20 per ounce.

Some countries, including Italy and New Zealand, announced an easing of lockdowns and more parts of the United States looked set to restart business.

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surezh Gold max
April 28, 2020
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Gold falls-2% as investors drive to cash

Gold Falls – 2% on Wednesday as investors dumped precious metals in favour of cash after additional stimulus measures by the United States failed to calm markets hit by mounting fears over the economic downside from the coronavirus.

Spot gold was down 1.9% to $1,499.59 per ounce by 10:59 a.m. EDT (1459 GMT). U.S. gold futures were down 1.6% to $1,501.10.

Gold continues to suffer from risk-off panics in the market, trading back below $1,500 level as S&P futures gave up stimulus driven gains.

Gold falls
surezh Gold max
March 19, 2020
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GOLD PRICES ROSE 0.3%

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, after surging more than 3 per cent in the previous session.

As the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to help soften the economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold climbed 0.3 per cent to $1,644.97 an ounce by 0052 GMT.

Having registered its biggest one-day percentage gain since 2016 gold prices in the previous session

G7  finance ministers and central bank governors said on Tuesday :

They would use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against risks from the virus, which has fuelled global recession fears.

The World Health Organization warned

Of a global shortage and price gouging for protective equipment to fight the epidemic and asked companies and governments to increase production by 40 per cent as the death toll mounted.

 

Palladium slipped 0.4 per cent to $2,490.62 per ounce, while platinum was up 0.1 per cent at $875.62.

Silver rose 0.3 per cent to $17.22 an ounce.

Demand for platinum from the auto industry will rise this year for the first time since 2016

But  it won’t be enough to offset a decline in investment buying, leaving the global market in surplus again, the World Platinum Investment Council said.

 

 

 

 

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surezh Gold max
March 4, 2020
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7-year high on profit-taking GOLD PRICES -FALLS

Gold prices fell 1 per cent on Tuesday as investors chose to pocket profits after the metal hit a seven-year high in the previous session, although growing fears over a spike in new coronavirus cases outside of China capped bullion’s losses.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was down 0.7 per cent to $1,649.49 per ounce by 0132 GMT, having touched a session low of $1,642.89.

ASIA MARKET

ASIAN shares extended losses amid fears the virus was rapidly mutating into a pandemic that could cripple global supply chains and wreak far greater economic damage than first thought.

CORONA VIRUS

The death toll climbed to seven in Italy on Monday and authorities sealed off the worst-affected towns, closed schools and halted the carnival in Venice, where there were two cases, while several Middle East countries were dealing with their first infections.

FINANCIAL MARKET

Financial markets on Monday ratcheted up bets the US Federal Reserve will be pressed to cut interest rates to cushion a feared hit to economic growth from the epidemic.

PROFIT TAKING

Bullion rose to a more than seven-year high of $1,688.66 in the previous session.

US gold futures fell 1.5 per cent to $1,651 an ounce.

The 1 per cent fall of Gold prices was because of margin calls but definitely that has triggered an added wave of profit-taking

 

 

 

 

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surezh Gold max
February 25, 2020
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Spot Gold slips near seven year high as US-Iran tensions ease

Spot gold fell 0.2 per cent to $1,562.81 per ounce by 0107 GMT. In the previous session, prices hit their highest since April 2013 at $1,582.59. US gold futures fell 0.2 per cent to $1,566.00.Gold prices inched lower on Tuesday, a day after hitting their highest in nearly seven years, with a lack of immediate escalation between the United States and Iran denting bullion‘s safe-haven appeal.

 

Goldmax

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surezh Gold max
January 7, 2020
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Gold dealers in India offered a discount last week due to plentiful supplies

Gold prices inched lower on Monday as investors moved to riskier assets following the announcement of an interim deal between the United States and China that cooled a 17-month-old trade dispute.

Spot Gold

Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at $1,473.88 per ounce, as of 0050 GMT. US gold futures were down 0.2 per cent at $1,478.60.

TRADE AGREEMENT
The “phase one” trade agreement was announced on Friday and on Sunday US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said US exports to China will nearly double over the next two years although officials are yet to decide a date to sign the agreement.

TARIFFS IN CHINA

The United States suspended some tariffs on Chinese goods that was due to go into effect on Sunday, while China State Council’s customs tariff commission said it had dropped its plan for additional tariffs on some US goods.

 

ASIAN MARKET

Asian shares rose as investors breathed a sigh of relief after a thaw in tariff war.

 

US ECONOMY
The US economy is doing well and looks set to stay that way next year, two top Federal Reserve policymakers said on Friday, remarks that suggest they are content to leave interest rates where they are However, data from US showed on Friday retail sales increased less than expected in November as Americans cut back on discretionary spending despite a strong labour market.

 

BREXIT
In the UK, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will “get Brexit done” by Jan. 31 and then agree to a new trade deal with the European Union by the end of 2020, cabinet office minister Michael Gove said on Sunday.

COMEX
Speculators slashed their bullish positions in COMEX gold in the week to Dec. 10, data showed.

INDIAN GOLD MARKET
Gold dealers in India offered a discount last week due to plentiful supplies and slack demand during the wedding season, with other regions in Asia expecting improvement in buying ahead of the Christmas and Chinese New Year festivities.

PALLADIU -PLATINUM -SILVER  MARKETS
Elsewhere, Palladium rose 0.6 per cent to $1,941.09 an ounce, silver shed 0.1 per cent to $16.92 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.2 per cent to $926.08.

 

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December 16, 2019
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Old Gold Rate | Spot gold price | 24 karat |

Old gold rate ::

Spot gold price for 24 Karat in Delhi were trading up by Rs 15 and the upside was limited on rupee appreciation. The spot rupee was trading 16 paise stronger against the dollar during the Silver prices also gained Rs 50 to Rs 45,726 per kg from Rs 45,676 per kg.

In the international market, both gold and silver were trading higher at $1,466.50 per ounce and $16.97 per ounce, respectively.

Bullion prices traded firm on Thursday, maintaining positive trading for the third consecutive day on the US-China trade deal worries

In the previous trade, the spot gold price had closed at Rs 38,980 per 10 gram.

The worsening protests in Hong Kong and weak industrial production data from China also supported gold prices.

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surezh Gold max
December 14, 2019
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SPOT GOLD

GOLD prices fell on Monday as investors turned to riskier assets on signs of economic growth following reports of an expanding Chinese factory sector and as a rising dollar reduced demand.
Spot gold was down 0.5 per cent at $1,456.70 per ounce by 0802 GMT, having earlier touched its highest since Nov. 22. US gold futures fell 0.7 per cent to $1,463.
An unexpected expansion in factory activity during November in China, the world’s second-largest economy and biggest gold user, spurred investors into equity markets

surezh Gold max
December 3, 2019

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  • GOLDMAX: Sell Gold Jewelry for Cash at Best Rate
  • WILL THE 2020 GOLD RALLY LAST ?
  • Why Gold Prices Are Hitting All-Time Highs ?
  • Which is better investment GOLD or DIAMOND ?
  • LOCKDOWN easing plans boost risk appetite

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